October 24, 2025

By Dr. Abbati Bako Kano

Caption: As the US-China trade war escalates, tariffs reach unprecedented levels, impacting global markets and consumer wallets. Experts warn of lasting consequences, particularly for emerging economies in the Global South. Will this economic showdown redefine global trade?

Article:

The escalating trade war between the United States and China has reached a critical juncture, with both nations imposing substantial tariffs that are reshaping the global economic landscape. The stark contrast in tariff rates – President Trump’s aggressive 145% versus China’s retaliatory 84% – underscores the severity of this economic confrontation.

Dr. Abbati Bako’s analysis, “When Two Elephants Fight,” aptly describes the situation, highlighting the profound implications for the global economy, particularly for emerging markets within the Global South. The numbers paint a clear picture:

  • US Tariffs:
    • The Trump administration’s tariffs have targeted approximately $2.4 trillion worth of imports, drastically increasing average rates from 2.5% to a striking 14.5%, the highest since 1938.
    • These tariffs aim to address trade deficits and what the US perceives as unfair trade practices by China.
  • China’s Retaliation:
    • In response, China has levied tariffs on $330 billion worth of US exports, affecting crucial sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.
    • These measures serve as a direct challenge to the Trump administration’s trade policies.
  • Economic Impact:
    • The ongoing trade war has unleashed a wave of economic consequences, extending far beyond the borders of the US and China.
    • US GDP: Projections indicate a potential 0.8% decrease, with long-term growth prospects facing significant headwinds.
    • Consumer Prices: American households are feeling the pinch, with tariffs leading to increased consumer prices and an average reduction in after-tax income of 1.5%, translating to over $1,500 per household.
    • Global Economy: The climate of uncertainty fueled by the trade war threatens to stifle global economic growth and development.
    • Industry Winners and Losers: While some US sectors, such as steel and aluminum, might experience short-term gains from protectionist policies, others, including agriculture and manufacturing, face substantial challenges.
    • China’s Response: China has actively diversified its trade relationships, seeking new export markets. However, the nation still grapples with economic pressures stemming from the trade war.
  • Analysis and Future Outlook:
    • Dr. Bako emphasizes the need to scrutinize the economic impact on specific industries and the potential long-term ramifications of this trade conflict, especially regarding the Global South.
    • Some american analyst suggest tariff rates as high as 400% on china, to properly enforce intellectual property rights.
    • The Trump administration has stated a 90 day pause on further tariffs against other nations, other than China.
    • European nations, and other countries have been given room for negotiations.

This economic showdown raises critical questions about the future of global trade and the delicate balance of power between major economies.

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